Counting cards was first proven to beat the game of blackjack in
1956 by a mathematician named Roger Baldwin. Since then; names like Ken
Uston, Lawrence Revere, Stamford Wong and Edward Thorpe have added their
own additions to card counting strategies. It is a simple method that
is used to tell us when we are more likely to win or lose the next hand
in the game of blackjack, (it's a little like predicting the future). It
tells us when the ratio of big cards outweighs the ratio of small cards
which is crucial in beating the game. The three things that card
counting tells us are: when the dealer is more likely to break (get over
21), when we are more likely to get better hands and when our chances
of getting blackjack have increased.
With the revolution of the
computer age came the invention of the simulator. These simulators can
calculate any outcome within an accuracy of 99.98%; they are used in
almost all fields including math, science and aerodynamics. They can
simulate any event millions of times in a short period so that the
outcome can be analyzed for results. We have used these simulators to
calculate the exact way to play, the exact way to bet, the exact amount
of bankroll you need for any size table and the exact amount of money
you will make every hour that you play. There are very few people that
have actually done this but the good news is one of them has...
There
are typically 3 different levels of card counting strategies that you
could choose to learn. The value assigned to each individual card
determines its complexity and accuracy. As cards are being dealt during a
game of blackjack, it affects the cards that remain. Having a value
assigned to each card as they are dealt allows you to mathematically
determine whether the remaining cards have increased your chances of
winning or not. Each card affects the remaining cards slightly
differently than the other; it is for this reason only that Level 2 and
Level 3 counts exist. The benefit of using a Level 2 or a Level 3 count
is that they are more accurate and therefore increase your overall
profit. Finding the perfect balance between ease and accuracy however is
crucial.
Level 1: This count is most often referred to as a
High/Low count, it is the easiest to learn but will yield the least
amount of profit. Each card is assigned either a value of +1 or -1.
The assigned values are as follows:
• 2 through 6. These cards are counted as +1 as they are dealt.
• 7, 8`s and 9`s. These cards are assigned no value and are therefore ignored as they are dealt.
• 10`s and Aces. These cards are counted as -1 as they are dealt.
Level
2 and Level 3 counts have different values assigned to each card
(instead of just +1 or -1). In a level 2 count some cards will be
assigned a value of +2 and -2, and obviously in a level 3 count some
cards will have a value of +3 or -3. Level 3 counts are more difficult
to do at the table; this increases stress and can cause an unacceptable
amount of mistakes that can ultimately cost you your overall advantage.
Factors that affect the overall advantage of card counting:
• The knowledge of basic strategy.
• Knowing when and how to violate basic strategy when it is required.
• The method used to convert the running count into the true count.
• The betting spread that is applied.
• The number of decks in the game (single, double or multi deck).
• Penetration points (where the dealer places the cut card to signify a reshuffle)
• The amount of hands played per hour.
• The casino rules.
• Which level count is being applied!
*These are all of the
factors that affect your overall advantage when counting cards. The more
accurate your count is the less these factors will influence your
hourly rate, bankroll requirements and length of losing periods, etc.
More information on these factors below
Q1. Is there any betting system that can beat the game... No!
Without
going into the complete logistics of the game, we have found it
impossible to beat any game that has a natural disadvantage with any
betting system (such as a progressive, anti progressive or martingale
system). Since time began man has been trying to devise the `perfect`
system to beat the casino`s (or any other game or sport, etc) but has
never been able to do it. The fact that casinos still exist and are
flourishing is testament to this fact. If there was such a system it
certainly wouldn't remain a secret for long, mankind is not very
trustworthy with keeping secrets, especially one of this magnitude.
You
can find these so called `perfect systems` in almost any form of media.
Some of them are very well written and full of hype and are even
extremely tempting to try but the truth is none of them work. The only
people making money from these so called `perfect systems` are the
people selling them. If any of them worked it would actually destroy the
game it was designed to beat and therefore the game would no longer be
offered to the public.
The bottom line is... any system you use,
whether it's a card counting strategy or a betting system; it has to
actually give you an advantage over the game for it to work. Any
`system` that claims to be able to beat a game with a natural
disadvantage just by the way you bet is a lie. No matter how much you
bet or how you bet it, a betting system will NOT eliminate the
disadvantage any game has over you. The reason that card counting works
is simple; the proven mathematical based strategies actually give an
advantage over the game itself.
Q2. Does card counting work and is it worth doing... Yes!
There are three questions that need to be answered here:
1. Is it easy enough so that anyone can do it?
2. How much bankroll do I need to start?
3. Does it make enough money to live on?
I have studied and
tested every card counting method available, millions of simulations
were needed to be run on each individual method and each individual hand
to compare one against the other. I tested them for two things, ease
and accuracy. It's of no use to learn the most difficult card counting
method if it`s too hard to do at the table. It is also of no use to
learn the easiest card counting method if it doesn't make enough money
to easily replace an income.
Problems with blackjack
• Most card counting strategies are too difficult to do at the table
• Almost all card counting courses do not arm you with all of the
information you need. They don't tell you things like bankroll
requirements, how much you will make per hour on different size tables
or how different casino rules or the amount of decks in play affect your
overall percentage. Other pertinent information such as penetration
points or camouflage methods is also missing.
• The most important thing about any card counting method is that it
has to be the easiest to do and the most accurate possible. Having this
perfect combination eliminates mistakes and makes you the most money
per hour. This allows you to start with the smallest bankroll and secure
your profits in the smallest amount of time.
Having the perfect combination of Ease and Accuracy will:
• Allow you to start with the smallest bankroll
• Be very easy to do which will eliminate mistakes
• Make as twice as much per hour as all other card counters
• Be unaffected by bad casino rules
• Secure your hourly profits quicker than any other count
All of the relevant factors about the game of Blackjack, explained.
Basic
Strategy: Basic strategy is a set of rules that tell you when to hit,
stand, double or split. It gives you the optimum mathematical decision
to make in almost every situation.
Violations to Basic Strategy:
There are some situations when basic strategy is not the optimum way to
play a hand. This is determined by the hand we have and the true count
at the time. When both of these occasional criteria are met at the same
time, we temporarily change our basic strategy to reflect the optimum
mathematical decision.
Converting the Running Count into the True
Count: The true count is simply the running count divided by the amount
of ½ decks left in the game. For example; if you're running count was +8
and there was 1 deck left in the un played cards, your true count would
be +4 (1 deck = 2 x ½ decks, so the equation is simply 8 divided by 2).
The true count determines how to play the hand (whether we are
temporarily changing our basic strategy or not) and how much to bet on
the next hand, therefore this calculation has to be done just prior to
making both of these decisions.
The Betting Spread: The betting
spread is simply the amount you bet on your next hand according to the
true count. It has to be sufficient enough to give you a good hourly
rate without attracting any undue attention in the casino.
The
Number of Decks in the Game: The amount of decks in the game will
directly affect your overall advantage. Every deck that is added to a
game of blackjack reduces your overall advantage by.10 percent. This
means that if your overall advantage on a single deck game was 2%, it
would be reduced to around 1.3% in an 8 deck game. It is therefore
obviously better to play a single or double deck game as opposed to an 8
deck shoe game.
Penetration Point: The penetration point is where
the dealer puts the cut card to signify where the last hand will be
before the cards are reshuffled. As long as the dealer is not cutting
off more than a quarter of the cards prior to dealing them, then this
will not be an issue (this reduces the number of profitable hands you
get to play before the cards are reshuffled). If a dealer is
consistently cutting off more than a quarter of the cards it will make
the game unprofitable.
The Number of Hands Played Per Hour: To
calculate how much any card counting method will make per hour you need
to know two things: how many hands you play in an hour and the overall
advantage your card counting method gives you. The advantage that
counting gives you means that you actually make x amount of profit per
hand, so the more hands you play; the more profit you make. A
conservative number of hands you will play per hour are around 100.
Casino`s expect their dealers to have a competency rate of over 100
hands per hour.
Casino Rules: Some casino`s have slightly
different rules than others when it comes to their blackjack tables.
Some casino`s for example will let you re-split aces or double on any
first two cards where others won`t. The rules that you find from one
casino to another only differ slightly and don`t have any real bearing
on your overall advantage, or your hourly rate. Most casino`s offer
rules that players like, this is to entice players to play at their
establishment.
Different Level Counts: This factor is one of the
more important. Your overall advantage is mainly determined by the
values given to each of the individual cards. The accuracy of your
counting method effects everything, it affects how much bankroll you
need, how much you will make every hour and how long you could wait
before your hourly rate is realized. Using a level 2 count that is both
easy and accurate (instead of a basic High/Low count) will almost double
your profits and halve your bankroll requirements. Having a count that
is both easy and accurate is considered to be a perfect combination.
About the author
With the assistance of a professor of statistics I have studied and
tested every card counting method available. I have also dealt and
supervised the game in Australia and the United States. Millions of
simulations were needed to be run on each individual method and each
individual hand to compare one against the other. I went on further to
find out how much bankroll was needed to start and how much each betting
spread made per hour. This crucial information was developed by me and
is not available anywhere else.
Access to the `Perfect Count` can
be gained by clicking the link below. This perfect combination of both
ease and accuracy contains everything that has been mentioned above.
This is the Perfect Count.
http://www.countthecards.com/theperfectcount.html
